January 20th, 2009

FORECAST DISCUSSION

by DAVE HOVDE

Not a lot of change in the current thinking about the rain and intensity. Tuesday should feature some increase in high clouds through the day, but be generally dry. Daytime highs will take a bit of a hit as a result, still looks like low to mid 70s in the coastal valleys and interior. This would still be 5-10 degrees above normal. Late Wednesday into Thursday a subtropical low spins up to our south and gives us a chance of rain, the best chance will be south of the Santa Ynez mountains. My forecast is for less than .30″ for the Central Coast and up to a half for the south, though I would have to say if I was hedging I would go on the lighter side. Beyond that forecasts diverge. One model was suggesting a rather muscular storm for the weekend, however it was the outlier and more recent runs have suggested dry after Thursday. At this point until there is more run to run consistency, I am going with dry but reserve the right to change my mind.

Inauguration Weather Click HERE.

Inauguration Weather History

I love this stuff, Discovery did a nice piece on it. Click HERE.

CLIMATE DATA FOR TODAY

THE SANTA MARIA AIRPORT CA CLIMATE

NORMALS NORMAL RECORD YEAR

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 64 83 1976

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 40 25 1922

THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT CA CLIMATE

NORMALS NORMAL RECORD YEAR

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 66 77 1944

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 41 30 1987

THE PASO ROBLES AIRPORT CA CLIMATE

NORMALS NORMAL RECORD YEAR

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 60 76 1976

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 36 19 1963

CAL POLY 84-1961

READER SUGGESTIONS

Viewer, Greg, has a passion for putting numbers in perspective and has been invaluable coming up with different observations and resources. I have been sharing some here on the blog. Check out his latest recommendation HERE. It is a way to look at long term extremes.

Longtime friend, Bill, loves all things science and spotted THIS ARTICLE. It ponders if we are 3-D at all. Believe it or not there are some reasons to think we are not.

By: Amber Lee

Washington, D.C. Inauguration Day forecast:

expected daytime high 32 degrees

It will feel colder than 32 degrees because of the breezy conditions.

Mostly cloudy

Back here on the Central Coast….

I spent the actual MLK holiday in Malibu yesterday and to my surprise there were some high clouds on a very warm day. Even with daytime highs in the 70’s and 80’s yesterday it looked liked it was going to be cold because of these clouds. Here is a photo I took at the beach. By noon, some of the clouds cleared up but even with these clouds the weather remained warm.

These are some of my favorite clouds. They are called Altocumulus clouds or “mackerel sky” clouds. In my meteorology class they are also sometimes referred to as “sheep’s back” clouds. The reason why they are called that is because of the way it looks and the type of texture the clouds have when they are formed in the sky. For instance, like a sheep’s fluffy back or the gills of a mackerel fish.

What I also like about the the “mackerel sky” is that it is a good indicator that a cold front is about to sweep through the area. And just like Dave Hovde said above, we can expect rain in the forecast for Wednesday.

TODAY’S HIGHS

Arroyo Grande78
Atascadero75
Avila Beach80
CA Valley75
Cambria73
Cayucos74
Creston79
Goleta78
Grover Beach69
Hearst Castle74
Lompoc80
Los Osos78
Morro Bay67
Nipomo81
Oceano76
Orcutt79
Paso Robles77
Pismo Beach68
Pozo74
San Luis Obispo82
San Miguel75
San Simeon64
Santa Barbara83
Santa Margarita71
Santa Maria79
Santa Ynez79
Shandon72
Shell Beach69
Solvang82
Templeton74
Vandenberg AFB75