January 20th, 2009

FORECAST DISCUSSION

by DAVE HOVDE

Not a lot of change in the current thinking about the rain and intensity. Tuesday should feature some increase in high clouds through the day, but be generally dry. Daytime highs will take a bit of a hit as a result, still looks like low to mid 70s in the coastal valleys and interior. This would still be 5-10 degrees above normal. Late Wednesday into Thursday a subtropical low spins up to our south and gives us a chance of rain, the best chance will be south of the Santa Ynez mountains. My forecast is for less than .30″ for the Central Coast and up to a half for the south, though I would have to say if I was hedging I would go on the lighter side. Beyond that forecasts diverge. One model was suggesting a rather muscular storm for the weekend, however it was the outlier and more recent runs have suggested dry after Thursday. At this point until there is more run to run consistency, I am going with dry but reserve the right to change my mind.

Inauguration Weather Click HERE.

Inauguration Weather History

I love this stuff, Discovery did a nice piece on it. Click HERE.

CLIMATE DATA FOR TODAY

THE SANTA MARIA AIRPORT CA CLIMATE

NORMALS NORMAL RECORD YEAR

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 64 83 1976

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 40 25 1922

THE SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT CA CLIMATE

NORMALS NORMAL RECORD YEAR

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 66 77 1944

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 41 30 1987

THE PASO ROBLES AIRPORT CA CLIMATE

NORMALS NORMAL RECORD YEAR

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 60 76 1976

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 36 19 1963

CAL POLY 84-1961

READER SUGGESTIONS

Viewer, Greg, has a passion for putting numbers in perspective and has been invaluable coming up with different observations and resources. I have been sharing some here on the blog. Check out his latest recommendation HERE. It is a way to look at long term extremes.

Longtime friend, Bill, loves all things science and spotted THIS ARTICLE. It ponders if we are 3-D at all. Believe it or not there are some reasons to think we are not.

By: Amber Lee

Washington, D.C. Inauguration Day forecast:

expected daytime high 32 degrees

It will feel colder than 32 degrees because of the breezy conditions.

Mostly cloudy

Back here on the Central Coast….

I spent the actual MLK holiday in Malibu yesterday and to my surprise there were some high clouds on a very warm day. Even with daytime highs in the 70’s and 80’s yesterday it looked liked it was going to be cold because of these clouds. Here is a photo I took at the beach. By noon, some of the clouds cleared up but even with these clouds the weather remained warm.

These are some of my favorite clouds. They are called Altocumulus clouds or “mackerel sky” clouds. In my meteorology class they are also sometimes referred to as “sheep’s back” clouds. The reason why they are called that is because of the way it looks and the type of texture the clouds have when they are formed in the sky. For instance, like a sheep’s fluffy back or the gills of a mackerel fish.

What I also like about the the “mackerel sky” is that it is a good indicator that a cold front is about to sweep through the area. And just like Dave Hovde said above, we can expect rain in the forecast for Wednesday.

TODAY’S HIGHS

Arroyo Grande78
Atascadero75
Avila Beach80
CA Valley75
Cambria73
Cayucos74
Creston79
Goleta78
Grover Beach69
Hearst Castle74
Lompoc80
Los Osos78
Morro Bay67
Nipomo81
Oceano76
Orcutt79
Paso Robles77
Pismo Beach68
Pozo74
San Luis Obispo82
San Miguel75
San Simeon64
Santa Barbara83
Santa Margarita71
Santa Maria79
Santa Ynez79
Shandon72
Shell Beach69
Solvang82
Templeton74
Vandenberg AFB75

January 15, 2009

Forecast Discussion

By: Amber Lee

The warm spell continues on this Thursday but it’s actually going to a little cooler compared to the last few days. The high pressure system is beginning to move eastward but records could be broken still as we are well above the season normal.

Check our these numbers just for a comparison. You will notice that Tuesday was the warmest and then we see a slight cooling take place.

Remember normally we’re in the mid to low 60’s.

San Luis Obispo

Monday – 82

Tuesday – 87

Wednesday – 86

Today’s expected high: 83

Paso Robles

Monday – 70

Tuesday – 78

Wednesday – 77

Today’s expected high: 76

Santa Maria

Monday – 80

Tuesday – 87

Wednesday – 79

Today’s expected high: 80

Santa Barbara –

Monday -77

Tuesday – 79

Wednesday – 84

Today’s expected high: 78

Lompoc –

Monday – 80

Tuesday – 81

Wednesday – 81

Today’s expected high: 78

It’s a beautiful day to go to the beach. Check out these beaches in the area: Santa Barbara’s Diablo Peak, Cayucos Beach Cam, Ventura boat yard, Pismo Coast Village, and Morro Bay Harbor

Extended Outlook

by Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde

Those are the 3 month graphical outlooks for temperature and precipitation.

January 13th, 2009

(Note: We are changing the forecast discussion to a blog format so that we can more regularly update the content and encourage more contributions from you. In the coming weeks you will find more links to environmental stories, national weather news, research and extended discussion of the local forecast. We hope to also talk about topics like astronomy, allergies, etc. Your input will help guide our direction.)

FORECAST DISCUSSION

by Dave Hovde

Offshore winds continue and high temperature records could fall any day this week. The air is also very dry which has leads to cool nights in the wind sheltered spots. Not much change this week, just varying amounts of offshore wind. All this contines for about another 10 days before models suggest a storm system could bring us rain. As I said last week, doesn’t look like a direct hit but we will take it. We are now falling 1-4″ behind on rain with limited time to catch up.

Records could fall: (79 in 1996 at the SLO airport is the record to beat for Tuesday; 78 in 1946 in Santa Maria; 86 in 1991 in Santa Barbara (Goleta); and 70 in 2000 in Paso Robles)

REPORTED HIGH TEMPS (added at 5:06pm)
Arroyo Grande92
Atascadero77
Avila Beach88
CA Valley75
Cambria81
Cayucos81
Corbett Canyon86
Creston79
Cuyama73
Goleta79
Grover Beach84
Guadalupe76
Hearst Castle80
Lompoc81
Los Osos85
Morro Bay83
Nipomo90
Oceano88
Orcutt87
Paso Robles78
Pismo Beach88
Pozo77
San Luis Obispo87
Santa Maria87
Santa Ynez87
Shandon79
Shell Beach87
Solvang81
Templeton76
Vandenberg AFB85

For the record books:

87 in SLO today is a new record for the date. 79 was the record in 1996. The all-time record for January is 88, Jan 17th 1976.

87 in Santa Maria is also a new reocrd for the date. 78 was the record in 1948, normal high is 64.

Santa Barbara (Goleta Airport) was 79 today. It was not a record, 86 in 1991 stands. Normal high 65.

Paso Robles was 78 today, a new record for the date. The old record was 70 in 2000. Average highs are near 60.

Lompoc was 81 today, a tie for the 1983 mark. Average high is 63.

Viewer e-mail

Longtime viewer, Greg, sent this along. To note, KSBP is the identifier for the SLO-Airport equipment:

I forgot 2009 in the KSBP January 3-day hot spell list.
1) 83.0, Jan. 27-29, 1984 (80 ties, 81 breaks it tomorrow)
2) 82.3, Jan. 11-13, 2009
3) 81.7, Jan. 28-30, 1984
4) 80.0, Jan. 26-28, 1984 & Jan. 2-4, 2001